Banca Transilvania (RO:TLV) stock has been undecided (trading in the 26-30 range). Through insider trading since June 2024, the price has somehow anticipated some crucial events in this year’s summer (OTP Bank business integrating into their business).

Based on the Refined Elliott Wave Theory, we’ll focus on Banca Transilvania’s technical analysis and predict how and when the price will move. We will simulate two category strategies according to this theory.

What did the stock Banca Transilvania do in the past?

Wave A (Expanded Flat) on Banca Transilvania (1H timeframe)

Banca Transilvania price has developed an Expanded Flat on 10 June 2024 when the price started falling from 29.137 to 28.45 on 2 August 2024. Let’s break down all the structures within:

From 29.137 in early 10 June 2024 to 28.6579 on 26 June 2024, the price formed a common Flat (blue)
From a low of 28.6579 on 26 June 2024, the price has developed an intermediary phase – wave b in orange – a Zig-Zag pattern (ending on 18 July 2024)
On18 July 2024, the price finished the last leg of the Expanded Flat—also a Flat (in yellow)—at noon on 2 August 2024.

The chart analysis on Banca Transilvania price with chart drawings (motive sub-waves of the (a)-wave in violet, according to the Refined Elliott Wave chart analysis)

What Will Banca Transilvania Stock Price Do Next?

Current wave development of wave structures on Banca Transilvania

Starting on 2 August 2024, the price is developing the (b) wave to a higher degree in violet.

Its sub-waves are as follows:

From 2 August 2024, the price has developed a triangle colored in black ((a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)) ending on 27 August 2024 at 29.3 level.

A chart image showing a triangle pattern wave (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) colored in black (according to Refined Elliott Wave Theory).

This triangle (in black) is the first leg of a higher degree of the (b)-wave in violet.

Further on, from the top of the 29.3 level, the price is developing a lower degree structure in rapport with the triangle, a complex structure formed as follows:

(A)-(B)-(C) sub-wave in green – a Zig-Zag pattern in forming with its sub-wave (B) formed by a presumably almost ended Running Flat in purple (A-B-C) with the further subdivisions.

Therefore, the first target is the projected one —the last leg of the B-wave in purple, slightly below the 27 level.

Further developments in the price of Banca Transilvania

The projections from this level are purely hypothetical, depending on where the price will close in the (B)-wave in purple.

The green B-wave is expected to close at the same level the price is situated at right now, near 20 November 2024. Now, depending on where wave (C) in green will close if it just goes below 27 or further below 26.7.

The image shows the internal structure of the wave (b) in purple according to technical analysis based on the Refined Elliott Waves Theory.

If the price of wave (C) in green and therefore the wave (b) in red goes below 26.7, it reduces the chances of the sub-wave (c) in red and its further higher degree wave (b) in violet to hit at most 29.3. This wave will shorten dramatically if the price develops a Running Flat in red – (a)-(b)-(c) and the probability of ending it before the end of this year 2024.

But after this segment—wave (b) in violet—finishes, the price will further fall, this time around in a much wider move.

The strategies of investing in Banca Transilvania stock

One risky strategy

Strategy #1

I would buy at first, on the first fresh lows below the aforementioned (a) wave is violet. If I invested, let’s say, 1000 dollars, I would invest 30% of it in the first leg of wave c in violet (sub-wave (A) in brown).

Image showing the a part investing alocation based on an chart analysis on Banca Transilvania stock (based on the Refined Elliott Wave theory)

After waiting for the A in brown to develop, I would see how the retreat of the B wave in brown would take place to project the final target of both the C in brown and C in violet. Then, I would invest the remaining 70% of the money allocated for this stock, where the projected C-violet wave level would be.

Two stages of portfolio allocation (30% and 70%) are applied according to the chart analysis based on the Refined Elliott Wave theory on Banca Transilvania with the potential projected price (price and time).

Two conservative investing strategies on Banca Transilvania stock

Strategy #2a

I would invest all the allocated money in Banca Transilvania stock in 2025 on the projected C wave in violet. But not before the B wave in brown is close to completion.

One stage portfolio allocation exemplification, according to chart analysis, is based on the Refined Elliott Wave theory on Banca Transilvania with the potential projected price (price and time).

Strategy #2b

The aforementioned projected wave c- in violet would constitute the level for making tight range Dollar Cost Averaging, with only two or three positions but not lower than 2% from the projected price. The positions would not lower than 0.25%, one from one another (image below).

Hypothetical allocation of capital from a projected price of 26.3516 (Dollar-cost averaging of three transactions represented by three horizontal violet horizontal lines) on Banca Transilvania (RO:TLV)

Note: Therefore, no matter what strategy you should have, time is the main reason for success in investing. Once you have more time and further information on a particular asset, you will presumably have better results and a better, well-informed decision.

Investing most of the time is like in a tennis match on a clay surface, where the ball is delayed once it is hit. Thus, delays in investing for specific reasons are recommended.

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Disclaimer

This article isn’t trading advice, and any financial loss associated with it is solely your responsibility.

However, a more cautious investment approach can generate stability and profit in the long run.

Refined Elliott Wave patterns are hard to identify, and there is always room for error, and I don’t recommend using them especially if you are a begginner in investing. Always seek professional financial advice when investing. Thank you!